With just two months remaining before the December 2024 elections, opposition leader John Dramani Mahama is solidifying his position as the frontrunner against his main rival, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.

A final field poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics shows Mr. Mahama, the flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), commanding 51.1 per cent of the vote, while Dr. Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) lags behind at 37.3 per cent.

Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako are emerging as significant challengers, securing 4.1 per cent and 6.2 per cent of the vote, respectively, adding further pressure on Bawumia’s campaign.

Even under an unweighted likely voters' model, Mr. Mahama holds a lead, with 49.3 per cent of support compared to Dr. Bawumia’s 35.9 per cent. The poll identifies voter apathy as a growing problem for the NPP, with 16 per cent of potential non-voters coming from its base. The NDC, in contrast, faces less risk, with only 3 per cent of its supporters indicating they may not vote.

Mr. Mahama’s lead extends significantly among floating voters, where he enjoys a 31-point advantage over Bawumia (54 per cent to 23 per cent). He also maintains an 18-point lead among voters who have not disclosed their party affiliations. First-time voters, a key demographic, are swinging in Mr. Mahama’s favour, with the NDC leader now leading Bawumia 46 per cent to 38 per cent, an increase from their tie in July.

A troubling sign for Dr. Bawumia is his waning support among Muslim voters, a crucial part of his base, which has dropped by nearly 4 per cent since July. Additionally, the poll shows Dr. Bawumia losing ground among voters who backed President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020, with 19 per cent switching allegiance to Mahama, and 10 per cent moving to independent candidates.

Regionally, Mr. Mahama has expanded his dominance, now leading in 12 of the country's regions, including key battlegrounds like Greater Accra and Bono. Dr. Bawumia, however, retains a stronghold in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, but his dominance is being eroded by the presence of Mr. Kyeremanten and Mr. Bediako.

In the Ashanti region, where the NPP is targeting 85 per cent of the vote, Dr. Bawumia currently holds 66 per cent, with Mr. Mahama capturing 22 per cent, and Mr. Bediako and Mr. Kyeremanten splitting the remaining share.

Voter concerns in the lead-up to the elections are primarily focused on the economy, with 70 per cent of respondents citing it as the most important issue, followed by jobs (62 per cent) and education (48 per cent). Mr. Mahama's NDC also leads the NPP by a 14-point margin on manifesto favourability, further boosting his electoral prospects.

Discontent with the country’s direction is widespread, with 62 per cent of voters believing Ghana is on the wrong track. President Akufo-Addo’s job approval rating stands at 36 per cent, with 59 per cent disapproving of his performance. This dissatisfaction, combined with the NPP’s struggles to regain voter confidence, positions Mahama as the leading candidate heading into the December elections.