As the second pricing-window for April 2024 comes to a close, Ghanaian consumers brace for a potential relief in petroleum prices after enduring a series of hikes. 

The Institute for Energy Security (IES) reports a mixed bag of changes in the global fuel market, influencing the local landscape.

Refined Product Prices Fluctuate

Tracking data from Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reveals a modest uptick in liquid fuel prices by an average of approximately 0.30% since the start of the second pricing-window for April. Gasoline is now retailing at GHS13.81 per litre, while Gasoil sits at GHS14.25 per litre. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), however, remains contentious, with the National Petroleum Authority mulling an imposition of an $80 per metric ton tax.

Among OMCs, Star Oil, Zen Petroleum, and Benab Oil have been noted for their relatively higher pricing over the past fortnight, according to IES Marketscan.

Global Oil Market Dynamics

Despite a notable increase in U.S. crude inventories two weeks ago, global oil prices have remained steady. A recent draw in U.S. crude stockpiles helped offset the buildup, maintaining stability in prices.

S&P Platts Closing Prices

The second pricing-window for April 2024 saw S&P Platts reporting closing prices for refined petroleum products. Gasoline was priced at $942.30 per metric ton, while Gasoil stood at $792.02 per metric ton. LPG recorded a price of $483.45 per metric ton, reflecting decreases of 0.49%, 5.87%, and 6.56%, respectively.

Forex Fluctuations

The performance of the Ghana Cedi against the U.S. Dollar continues to be a cause for concern. Over the last 15 days of April, the local currency experienced a 1.06% depreciation, closing at GHS13.52 against its counterpart.

IES Projections for May 2024

Looking ahead to the first pricing-window of May 2024, the IES anticipates a slowdown in petroleum prices. Gasoil and LPG are expected to see a decline of about 5.87% and 6.56%, respectively, while Gasoline may experience a marginal increase of approximately 0.49%. The persistent depreciation of the Ghana Cedi against the U.S. Dollar further influences these projections.

So, consumers can anticipate a respite from the recent surge in petroleum prices, attributed to subdued increments in global refined product costs. However, the lingering weakness of the Ghanaian currency against the greenback remains a critical factor shaping market dynamics.